Crossing NATO's Article 5 red line: Will Wagner settle scores with Poland?
Wagner Group is back in action, and it wants to punish Poland for crimes in Donbass. Such talk brought a sly smile to Putin's face. Will Russia dare to test NATO's much-vaunted "Article 5" tripwire?
Over the past 18 months, NATO has crossed numerous ‘red lines’ set by Moscow. With support from NATO, Kiev often bombs Russian cities and towns, murdering hundreds; they bomb civilian infrastructure such as the Crimean Bridge; and they carry out terrorist attacks across Russia. NATO is confident that Moscow won’t strike back because that would trigger “Article 5” and set in motion a world war.
In recent weeks, however, there are signs that Moscow might soon shed its cautious approach. Thanks to battlefield victories and growing military industrial might, Moscow is now more confident and ready to test the efficacy of Article 5, which was only invoked once — after the Sept. 11 attacks.
With access to formidable media resources, NATO has crafted an image of itself that doesn’t correspond to reality. NATO is more hype than bite. It’s a veritable Babylon of dysfunctional states led by mediocre minds and protected by soldiers who lack the motivation and will to fight, (as seen in the Middle East over the past 20 years).
Russian defense factories are producing vast amounts of weapons, while NATO’s supplies dwindle and can barely be replenished. Russians are motivated to fight, aware that their country’s survival is at stake. This is in contrast to Europe which is plagued by growing poverty, social upheaval and demoralization. A land war between NATO and Russia would quickly go in Moscow’s favor, and NATO knows this.
Well aware of NATO’s internal weaknesses, Moscow is considering punishing NATO for its many crimes against the Russian people, and this means possibly crossing the biggest red line — a stealth attack on a NATO country. This is where Wagner Group might play a crucial role.
As stated in previous posts, a review of the facts clearly shows that Kiev and NATO are aggressors attacking Donbass and Crimea. The millions of ethnic Russians in those regions want to remain in the Russian Federation, and they want Moscow’s protection from Kiev’s ruthless policy of ethnic cleansing.
It might take time, but eventually NATO and Ukrainian officials will have to be brought to justice. They cannot be allowed to commit horrendous crimes with impunity. Of all the NATO countries, the lion’s share of guilt falls upon the U.S., UK and Poland. They harbor the most hatred for Russia and seek its destruction.
Since Donbass and Crimea are officially a part of Russia, Moscow has a legal right to retaliate against countries, such as Poland, that support hostilities. But how can justice be served? The international court system is a farce and under de facto NATO control. So, Moscow will have to resort to other methods.
Perhaps such a delicate task could be given to a group of highly skilled ‘mutineers’ with nothing to lose and who have officially been disowned and condemned by Moscow? Now, that would be a very convenient option.
In fact, this option was broached last weekend at the official residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Strelna (St. Petersburg) during a state visit by Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko.
In recent weeks, an estimated 20,000 troops of the ‘mutinous’ Wagner Group have been gathering in Belarus with large amounts of military equipment. Wagner is training the army and conducting military exercises along the Polish border. This has put NATO on edge, moving its own troops closer to the border in response.
“People living near Poland's border with Belarus said on Thursday they could hear shooting and helicopters after Russia's Wagner Group arrived to train Belarusian special forces just a few miles from the frontier, compounding their fears that the Ukraine war would reach them.” (Reuters, July 20)
In a video released to the public, Lukashenko informed President Putin: “Wagner is starting to make us tense; they beg to be allowed to head West; and I ask: ‘Why do you want to go West?’ [And they answer that] ‘we want to observe the situation there, and to take a little trip to Warsaw and Rzeszów’. Now, Rzeszów for them is something odious because when [Wagner] fought in Artemovsk [Bakhmut] they knew very well from where the [Ukrainian] military equipment was coming from; so that’s why [Wagner] despises Rzeszów.”
Lukashenko, however, sarcastically remarked that of course he won’t let this happen - “I don’t want them to go [to Poland] because they are in a very bad mood. We will try to prevent this and I request that you also take measures in terms of supporting us regarding western Ukraine”.
While listening, a sly and crafty smile came upon Putin’s face. (see image above).
Why would Lukashenko and Putin publicly discuss something so potentially explosive as Wagner’s desire to ‘visit’ Poland? The answer is obvious — to send a menacing message to Poland and NATO. However, it might not be a bluff.
Also, Lukashenko mentioned the need for Putin’s support regarding western Ukraine. This is in reference to plans by Poland and Lithuania to occupy western Ukraine in case the regime collapses, which is likely in the next 12 months. Lukashenko said that Polish (and NATO) control of western Ukraine is unacceptable.
Just like the sudden collapse of the U.S.-backed regime in Afghanistan in summer 2021, Kiev is hurtling down the path to perdition. Zelensky can’t survive without tens of billions in western aid, and eventually that money will stop flowing.
Mutineers usually end up in prison or executed. But somehow Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner have been able to maintain their power and influence. And now the world’s most powerful private army is just a short drive from the Polish/ NATO border. What an extraordinary coincidence and how convenient.
As I wrote at the end of June, the close relationship between Putin and Prigozhin goes back 30 years. More than ever, the Russian president needs people he can trust to carry out sensitive tasks.
The current situation resembles a chess game, except that Wagner is not a mere pawn. Rather, think of Wagner as a powerful rook. As a great chess master Putin might wait for the right time to strike at NATO, unexpectedly and with devastating force.
A Wagner strike against NATO logistics centers in Poland, for example, would be both legal under international law and cause tremendous division and confusion in NATO, effectively paralyzing the alliance.
If that happens, and Article 5 is invoked, then we might find out that NATO is nothing more than a paper tiger that has been overhyped thanks to western media propaganda. And that could be the moment when the whole western house of cards begins to collapse.
My advice to the White House — make peace now, at any cost, before it’s too late.
Thank you for a great inspiring article, John! I like your analysis of current actions.
The situation is fascinating, and most of us would never know about it without your reporting. Thank you for keeping us informed. At least as informed as is possible in the fog of war.
If there weren't so many innocent lives disrupted, you could almost see events scripted as a Hollywood comedy.