Will Russia be Victorious in Donbas by May 9?

Russia wants to liberate Donbas from Ukrainian forces responsible for ethnic cleansing that slaughtered thousands of Russians. Achieving that by May 9 - WW II Victory Day - seems to be the goal.

Today, April 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin said “peace talks are at a dead end”. Russia is preparing a new and decisive stage of the plan to win the Battle of Donbas that has been raging for 7 weeks. On April 11, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that preparations are almost complete. A major offensive is expected to begin later this week or early next.

The fight for Donbas began in spring 2014 when revolutionary Ukrainian militants, with NATO’s blessing, launched attacks against the predominantly ethnic Russian regions of Donetsk and Lugansk. The name “Donbas” is in reference to its unofficial moniker — the Donetsk Coal Basin, which is due to the fact that the region is rich in coal deposits, not to mention other important natural resources.

When the Donetsk and Lugansk republics (DNR and LNR) announced their independence in spring 2014, invading Ukrainian forces soon occupied 70% of Donbas. The front lines held steady for 8 years, until this Feb. 24 when Russia officially recognized the DNR and LNR as independent republics.

Today, the DNR and LNR militia, together with Russian army units, are liberating Donbas in heavy and brutal fighting. After 7 weeks, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have been pushed back and control only about 30% of Donbas. Most of the LNR is liberated, but a very large UAF force — up to 100,000 soldiers armed and trained by NATO over the past 5 years — occupy the western part of the DNR, primarily in the corridor from Sloviansk through Kramatorsk to Horlivka (Gorlovka).

Historical anniversaries and official holidays are important in Russia. That’s one reason why the incursion into Ukraine began on Feb. 24, the very day after the military’s official holiday, Day of the Defender, when Russian troops were pumped up with patriotic fervor. Coincidentally, it was almost 8 years to the day of the violent U.S.-backed insurrection that overthrew the democratically elected (and pro-Russian) Ukrainian leader, Victor Yanukovych, (he was deposed on Feb. 22, 2014).

The coming Russian offensive in Donbas will be massive, unlike anything seen since 1945. While that doesn’t guarantee a quick and easy victory, Moscow would love nothing more than to liberate Donbas in time for celebrations to mark Russia’s victory over Nazism in World War II.

In addition, defeating the NATO-built Ukrainian army is the most important national security challenge that Moscow has faced since Russia became independent from the Soviet Union in 1991. Be certain — even if Ukraine scores some early successes in the Battle of Donbas, Russia will not spare anything to achieve total victory.

Even worse, what the West should fear most is that if by some chance Russia starts losing, then it could resort to more devastating weapons and spread the war to European countries in a desperate bid to stop the flow of NATO weapons to the UAF.

Sizing up the warring sides

Ukraine has the second largest army in Europe, with 250,000 active personnel; a figure that rises to 1.1 million soldiers with reserves. Many have gone through some NATO training over the past 5 years and were armed by NATO. In addition, Ukraine has lots of equipment that is based on Soviet models.

Also, Ukraine can tap into 11 million more men of military-age (18 to 60), forced into service by Vladimir Zelensky, who we can now call the Ukrainian dictator. His regime has shut all opposition parties, shut all independent media and wages a terror campaign against anyone who speaks freely and wants peace.

Russia’s invading force is only about 150,000 soldiers, but it can count on a powerful missile offense, as well as a highly advanced Air Force and Navy in the Black Sea. On paper, Russia has 3 million soldiers including reserves, but most of the troops can’t be counted on because they’re needed to protect the country’s vast borders. So, we shouldn’t consider Ukraine easy prey. In fact, the Russians are outnumbered.

Battlefield today

Despite the tidal wave of Ukrainian propaganda and disinformation spread by major western media, the fact is that Russia is winning the war. Russia has unleashed massive destruction on the UAF and its infrastructure across the country.

The backbone of Ukrainian fascism — the terrorist group Azov Battalion — has almost been obliterated in Mariupol, an ethnic Russian city in Donbas. The locals have accused Azov of war crimes, for using them as human shields and shooting at them if they tried to leave the city. (Azov, with their Nazi-inspired symbol, is below).

The war has proven more difficult for Russia, but that’s not due to Ukraine’s prowess on the battlefield. Ukraine has avoided total defeat in large part thanks to NATO weapons, real-time battlefield intelligence, and foreign mercenaries and advisors.

Major media in the West have spent the past week talking about “victory” in the contrived “Battle of Kiev”, as well as promoting unproven claims of Russian “war crimes” in towns such as Bucha. Why do I say that the “Battle of Kiev” is contrived? Because it was a feint, a ploy by Russia to bog down a large part of the UAF near Kiev, preventing reinforcement of the UAF army in Donbas.

Therefore, sizable UAF forces remain stuck outside Kiev, along Russia’s border, short on gas because Russia destroyed Ukraine’s fuel infrastructure. Those UAF troops need to protect Kiev from a Russian return. And even if those UAF forces were free to do so, they don’t have the gas to make the 450 mile journey from Kiev to Donbas.

In conclusion, a tragedy is unfolding before our eyes — two nations, both neighbors and brothers — will kill each other, with thousands of casualties on each side. Meanwhile, NATO leaders sit in their lavish homes and offices, and order their comic puppet, Zelensky, to continue to fight Russia until the last Ukrainian.

ENDS