The 'St. Petersburg group' has been the most powerful force in the Kremlin since 2000. Prigozhin and Putin share that bond, friendly since the mid 1990s. Think of Wagner as Putin's praetorian guard.
Thanks for filling in the background on the Putin-Prigozhin relationship, John. Given the improbability of Prigozhin suddenly attempting a coup, I lean toward masquerade with motive still hidden. Is there actual proof of downed aircraft and dead pilots? This can be faked in ways similar to Hitler’s Polish “invasion” warranting his blitzkrieg.
Yes, good point. Putin today spoke about the alleged downed pilots. But yes, this can be faked. And let's also think of it this way -- if those pilots truly had been killed, then a murder investigation has to be launched. And nothing of the sort has happened.
I agree with this analysis COMPLETELY, it fits so perfectly with all the many pieces. I hope the backstory comes out in a very public way after the deepstate/NATO has been tried and executed and the rest of planet earth has been set free to live in peace at last. We've never really had the chance to before, and I mean NEVER as this death cult has been around for centuries. I pray for Russia, it's brave men, its patriots and Putin himself. He's not just fighting enemies, he's fighting Evil itself.
John, your verdict would be all fine and good except for a few things. 1. Russian pilots were downed and killed, several of them. Would that have been part of a fake mutiny? 2. Prigozhin came out and publicly denounced the very reasons for the SMO - which were strong and valid (violent and bloody US engineered Maidan coup) and included hundreds of deaths of Donbass children 2014-2022. Would that have been necessary in a fake mutiny? No, a fake mutiny does not ring true at all. If Prigozhin was needed in Belarus, they could have just packed up and flown there, the lot of them. No need at all for subterfuge.
Good questions. There’s clearly a lot we don’t know. But the main point of my article is to highlight the very long and close relationship between Prigozhin and Putin. Had Prigozhin truly set on the path to mutiny he would have done so with great ferocity because he knows the punishment for mutiny in Russia is death. (Think of Peter the Great and the streltsy).
They have outlawed the death penalty in Russia since then, though haven't they John? Not sure about for Treason. I agree it was a half arsed attempt, which I attributed to mental health is severe disrepair, which has been evident with Prigozhin for a long time now. That begs the question of why so many men went along with him for the ride! If it was a fake mutiny, he would/could never have taken thousands of troops into his confidence. That leads me to believe his claims against Shoigu might be at least partially true. Putin has been caught in the middle between two old and valued comrades having a violent stoush outside the pub on Saturday night. I think Prigozhin totally lost it. Like a good mate who doesn't let his best mate drink and drive, Putin stepped in between them and sent Prigozhin packing.
Re: death penalty — its widely practiced in Russia unofficially. Just look at the spate of assassinations of organized crime bosses in St Petersburg in 2000-2001. And to better understand what transpired this weekend we should focus on what people do and not official statements. This is precisely where many analysts go astray; they focus too much on official statements and not their deeds. If Wagner truly sets roots in Belarus then that’s a clear sign that this was a plan. True mutineers are punished severely.
"This is precisely where many analysts go astray; they focus too much on official statements and not their deeds." Yep, Daria Dugina and Max Fomin. At least Budanov came out and admitted to their killings before he disappeared, no doubt at the hands of Russian intelligence. Good riddance to one evil scourge upon the earth.
Thank you for a very interesting and great article, John! I agree with you that Yevgeny Prigozhin is a true patriot of Russia, but I really was afraid of this event last week. I doubt that it was planned.
How do you fit Putin’s speech into this? He called it a stab in a back. They do know each other for a long time and clearly Prigizhin was operating with Putin’s approval until a certain point but those helicopters and a plain was shot down for real and no friend of Czar’s can publicly announce a march on Moscow, essentially a march on Kremlin.
The punishment for mutiny is always severe. Why has he been left off so easily? Very peculiar. Perhaps Prigozhin will be found dead in the coming weeks. Or perhaps not….
Thank you for the excellent and unique analysis of this confusing situation. It has been incredibly easy to dismiss Western nonsense narratives, but Scott Ritter's take did seem plausible to me as an outsider.
I've been aware of the "special relationship" between Putin and Prigozhin for a long time, but the US has been very successful with clandestine operations for decades. It seemed to me that after failing, first with sanctions and then with the counter offensive, they might be orchestrating Maindan 2.0. (Or trying to anyway, in spite of no chance of success.)
Putin has already agreed to send nukes to Belarus. In that light, sending a military defense force as well seems like a pretty straightforward, rational decision. Maybe doing it by way of subterfuge has advantages?
Is it worth noting that both Serbian president Vucic and Lavrov have called it a failed coup instigated by US? (At this point, even such statements could be part of the subterfuge.)
My guess is that Prigozhin has been sent to Belarus to organize a private army that will combat the private militias being organized in Poland and elsewhere in NATO countries that have stated their intention to overthrow the Belarus government by force/insurrection (perhaps even counterattacking with subversion in NATO countries committed to "regime change" in both Belarus and Russia; and he is protected in Belarus by Russian nukes).
If the foregoing was all planned (as is certainly quite possible), one must question who was in those 7 Russian helicopters that were shot down by Prigozhin: maybe they were disloyal/incompetent members of the Russian military and/or those suspected of working for the Ukrainian fascists who were thereby given their death sentences without the paperwork?).
Unique article with perfect analysis
Thank you
Thanks for filling in the background on the Putin-Prigozhin relationship, John. Given the improbability of Prigozhin suddenly attempting a coup, I lean toward masquerade with motive still hidden. Is there actual proof of downed aircraft and dead pilots? This can be faked in ways similar to Hitler’s Polish “invasion” warranting his blitzkrieg.
Yes, good point. Putin today spoke about the alleged downed pilots. But yes, this can be faked. And let's also think of it this way -- if those pilots truly had been killed, then a murder investigation has to be launched. And nothing of the sort has happened.
Welcomed article, and views of a hopeful Country!
How does this comport with the information that Lukashenko has released about the coup?
https://president.gov.by/ru/events/vruchenie-pogon-vysshemu-oficerskomu-sostavu#:~:text=%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B3%20%D0%90%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80%20%D0%A8%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9,%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8F!%22%2C%20-%20%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%BB%20%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82
PDF Here, Machine translated
https://t.me/c/1299382196/18024
I agree with this analysis COMPLETELY, it fits so perfectly with all the many pieces. I hope the backstory comes out in a very public way after the deepstate/NATO has been tried and executed and the rest of planet earth has been set free to live in peace at last. We've never really had the chance to before, and I mean NEVER as this death cult has been around for centuries. I pray for Russia, it's brave men, its patriots and Putin himself. He's not just fighting enemies, he's fighting Evil itself.
John, your verdict would be all fine and good except for a few things. 1. Russian pilots were downed and killed, several of them. Would that have been part of a fake mutiny? 2. Prigozhin came out and publicly denounced the very reasons for the SMO - which were strong and valid (violent and bloody US engineered Maidan coup) and included hundreds of deaths of Donbass children 2014-2022. Would that have been necessary in a fake mutiny? No, a fake mutiny does not ring true at all. If Prigozhin was needed in Belarus, they could have just packed up and flown there, the lot of them. No need at all for subterfuge.
Good questions. There’s clearly a lot we don’t know. But the main point of my article is to highlight the very long and close relationship between Prigozhin and Putin. Had Prigozhin truly set on the path to mutiny he would have done so with great ferocity because he knows the punishment for mutiny in Russia is death. (Think of Peter the Great and the streltsy).
They have outlawed the death penalty in Russia since then, though haven't they John? Not sure about for Treason. I agree it was a half arsed attempt, which I attributed to mental health is severe disrepair, which has been evident with Prigozhin for a long time now. That begs the question of why so many men went along with him for the ride! If it was a fake mutiny, he would/could never have taken thousands of troops into his confidence. That leads me to believe his claims against Shoigu might be at least partially true. Putin has been caught in the middle between two old and valued comrades having a violent stoush outside the pub on Saturday night. I think Prigozhin totally lost it. Like a good mate who doesn't let his best mate drink and drive, Putin stepped in between them and sent Prigozhin packing.
Re: death penalty — its widely practiced in Russia unofficially. Just look at the spate of assassinations of organized crime bosses in St Petersburg in 2000-2001. And to better understand what transpired this weekend we should focus on what people do and not official statements. This is precisely where many analysts go astray; they focus too much on official statements and not their deeds. If Wagner truly sets roots in Belarus then that’s a clear sign that this was a plan. True mutineers are punished severely.
"This is precisely where many analysts go astray; they focus too much on official statements and not their deeds." Yep, Daria Dugina and Max Fomin. At least Budanov came out and admitted to their killings before he disappeared, no doubt at the hands of Russian intelligence. Good riddance to one evil scourge upon the earth.
Thank you for a very interesting and great article, John! I agree with you that Yevgeny Prigozhin is a true patriot of Russia, but I really was afraid of this event last week. I doubt that it was planned.
Thank you for the comment
How do you fit Putin’s speech into this? He called it a stab in a back. They do know each other for a long time and clearly Prigizhin was operating with Putin’s approval until a certain point but those helicopters and a plain was shot down for real and no friend of Czar’s can publicly announce a march on Moscow, essentially a march on Kremlin.
The punishment for mutiny is always severe. Why has he been left off so easily? Very peculiar. Perhaps Prigozhin will be found dead in the coming weeks. Or perhaps not….
Thank you for the excellent and unique analysis of this confusing situation. It has been incredibly easy to dismiss Western nonsense narratives, but Scott Ritter's take did seem plausible to me as an outsider.
I've been aware of the "special relationship" between Putin and Prigozhin for a long time, but the US has been very successful with clandestine operations for decades. It seemed to me that after failing, first with sanctions and then with the counter offensive, they might be orchestrating Maindan 2.0. (Or trying to anyway, in spite of no chance of success.)
Putin has already agreed to send nukes to Belarus. In that light, sending a military defense force as well seems like a pretty straightforward, rational decision. Maybe doing it by way of subterfuge has advantages?
Is it worth noting that both Serbian president Vucic and Lavrov have called it a failed coup instigated by US? (At this point, even such statements could be part of the subterfuge.)
That is a good point. It certainly will be an eventful summer and autumn. Can’t wait to see how it all plays out.
My guess is that Prigozhin has been sent to Belarus to organize a private army that will combat the private militias being organized in Poland and elsewhere in NATO countries that have stated their intention to overthrow the Belarus government by force/insurrection (perhaps even counterattacking with subversion in NATO countries committed to "regime change" in both Belarus and Russia; and he is protected in Belarus by Russian nukes).
If the foregoing was all planned (as is certainly quite possible), one must question who was in those 7 Russian helicopters that were shot down by Prigozhin: maybe they were disloyal/incompetent members of the Russian military and/or those suspected of working for the Ukrainian fascists who were thereby given their death sentences without the paperwork?).
Very good points. It will be interesting to see if this is the case, (Belarus), which I suspect it might be.