Are Russia's army generals the real mutineers?

On June 23, Wagner Group said it was bombed by army units, killing a dozen. This ignited the 'mutiny'. The generals responsible haven't been held accountable. Putin still needs Wagner for victory.

Wagner fighters greeted as heroes by the people of Rostov-on-Don

On June 26, just two days after Wagner Group’s so-called ‘mutiny’, President Vladimir Putin spoke to the Russian people, trying to spin the image of national unity when in fact there was confusion. He claimed that the ‘mutiny’ had failed because the nation rallied together under his banner.

In reality, many Russians were shocked and not sure what to believe. I received messages from about a dozen friends living in Russia asking me (!) if I knew what was really going on. And just as quickly as the ‘mutiny’ erupted, it came to a peaceful conclusion. While we still don’t understand what really transpired on June 23-24, one thing is for certain — we witnessed the most bizarre ‘mutiny’ in history.

The embarrassing truth (for the Kremlin) is that Wagner Group soldiers were warmly welcomed in Rostov-on-Don, a city of over one million people that Wagner quickly took control of without firing a shot. As Wagner troops moved in, Russian army generals fled the city. Their cowardice won’t be forgotten. It’s said that many mid-ranking and rank-and-file soldiers have great respect for Wagner; so persecuting the group would only damage the army’s spirit. This is why the Kremlin quickly closed the criminal case against Wagner.

If Putin truly has sided with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his generals against Wagner, then he’s made a mistake. Russia’s military faces a credibility crisis. Failures in Kharkov and Kherson last autumn revealed negligence, corruption and incompetence. The Russian military needs new leadership, and it needs Wagner.

Let’s remember how last autumn, as the Russian lines collapsed, the situation in the army was so dire that the Kremlin appealed to Wagner to halt the rapid Ukrainian advance. This war could have ended in late 2022 with a NATO/ Ukrainian victory, but Wagner helped to turn the tide and saved Russia from disgrace.

In winter, due to Wagner’s skill and determination, the Soledar/ Bakhmut front was the only area of a Russian advance. The Ukrainians outnumbered Wagner about 4 to 1 in manpower. Kiev boasted that its impenetrable “Bakhmut Fortress’ couldn’t be taken, but still, Wagner triumphed against daunting odds.

Bakhmut is the only Russian victory since summer 2022, which is why Wagner enjoys tremendous respect among the people, and which is why Moscow’s condemnation of Wagner is seen as a betrayal by many. The rift between liberal Moscow and the rest of Russia is indeed a very old and deep fault line.

Wagner fighters celebrate victory in Bakhmut, May 21

To further recap — in spring Wagner’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, took to social media to berate army generals for what he said was gross incompetence, corruption and treason; for failing to provide Wagner with sufficient resources to fight in Bakhmut. Whether or not those complaints were valid is difficult to say. Wagner is the world’s best equipped private military company (PMC); so some Russian generals have certainly been generous and supportive of Wagner.

Some generals close to Defense Minister Shoigu, such as Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, seem to resent Wagner’s success, and allegedly wanted to trip up the PMC in order to spoil its fame and glory. No one knows for sure, but this sounds plausible.

The situation came to a head on June 23 when — according to Prigozhin — Shoigu’s loyalist generals attacked a Wagner camp in Donbass, killing a dozen. If true, then the real traitors aren’t Wagner, but rather, those who killed some of Russia’s finest soldiers.

Over the past week, many analysts in the West and Russia have reported on the ‘mutiny’ under the heavy influence of Kremlin press statements that condemned Wagner. The goal of the ensuing media hysteria was to conceal a vital fact — Wagner didn’t seek to remove Putin; rather, it was a cry for justice over the June 23 attack. Actually, the Kremlin’s handling of the ‘Wagner mutiny’ reminds me of how the Democratic Party has weaponized the so-called ‘January 6th insurrection’.

In typical 'trial-by-media’ fashion, Prigozhin was accused of “treason” and not given a chance to defend himself. Both Russian and western journalists failed to ask crucial questions, and they showed rare and astonishing agreement on Prigozhin’s alleged “treason”, which should make us suspicious and skeptical.

Prigozhin with Wagner soldiers in Bakhmut

So, here are my questions regarding the Wagner ‘mutiny’:

1. Prigozhin openly berated generals for months. Where was the Federal Security Service (FSB) — was it really unaware of the situation?

2. Was Putin, who is a former FSB director and lifelong friends with the current FSB director, aware of the extent of tension between Prigozhin and Shoigu? And if so, then why didn’t he act?

3. If Prigozhin was truly a potential threat to the Kremlin, then why not act sooner to stop him and settle this matter without the media circus?

4. Putin mentioned 7 military pilots allegedly killed for threatening Wagner’s column. But why no tears shed for the dozen Wagner soldiers killed?

5. Has any Russian general been punished for the killing of Wagner soldiers?

Perhaps Putin is working towards a goal that we’ll only understand weeks or months from now. This question I raised in my article last week. I theorized that perhaps Putin secretly supports Prigozhin, his old friend from St Petersburg, and that there’s some clever plan in action to flush out the real traitors.

In fact, a video surfaced last week made by an alleged Wagner soldier who claimed that Putin and Prigozhin have colluded to expose traitors in the Defense Ministry. I can’t confirm the authenticity of this video, but the man speaks coherently and cogently. Some might try to ‘debunk’ this video, but it’s worth listening to. (below)

War’s dangerous new phase

The Russia-NATO War is entering a very dangerous phase. The White House will soon send ATACMS ballistic missiles, which have a 200 mile range, to Kiev. This will change the entire calculus of the war. Major Russian cities and military bases will now be in range of the U.S. missiles — Crimea, Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov-on-Don, as well as Minsk and Gomel in Belarus.

Also, in the wake of its disastrous ‘counter-offensive’ in Zaporozhye, Kiev has made ominous statements hinting at blowing up the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, (but which it will blame Moscow for, of course). If Kiev carries through with this plan for a nuclear terror attack, then Moscow will have to act decisively.

Hellbent on subjugating Russia and removing Putin, the White House will escalate the war. The Democratic Party needs victory before the election campaign starts in earnest in February. Biden would love to boast about defeating Putin.

In this context, Moscow might have no other choice but to unleash the Bear and bring an end to the regime in Kiev. This is exactly what Prigozhin has been saying for months. Russia needs to take off the gloves.

The green-yellow field shows the ATACMS range on Russian territory

To win, Moscow needs Wagner’s skilled fighters — they are the country’s most effective fighting force. Sidelining Wagner is like Argentina benching Lionel Messi. You can’t win without your best player. Sure, we’re told that some Wagner soldiers have joined the regular army, and perhaps they’ll act as special forces and trainers.

But the fact remains — Wagner as a cohesive fighting force strikes fear into Ukrainian soldiers, who don’t have much respect for the regular Russian army. In a recent interview with the Washington Post, Ukraine’s General Zaluzhny admitted that Wagner is one of his main fears.

Without Wagner, the chances of a decisive Russian victory are not very good, and stalemate is highly likely, which would eventually allow NATO to build up its forces and strike at Russia with renewed ferocity in the future.

Then there’s the potential damage to Moscow’s foreign policy in Africa and the Middle East, where Wagner was a crucial asset to project Russian power. But that’s a separate topic for another article.

A month ago, the Russian nation and media celebrated Wagner when it pushed NATO/ Ukrainian forces out of Bakhmut. I find it hard to believe that those fighting men who risked their lives to help liberate Donbass from brutal NATO/ Ukrainian occupation would ever do anything to damage Russian national interests. There’s certainly more to this story than we know.

For Russia to win this war, Shoigu and other high-ranking military officers will have to put the interests of the nation above their personal ambitions and pride. The Russian people must unite and mobilize. And Wagner will have to re-enter the fight at some point, in some capacity. I wonder what’s cooking in Belarus?

(My next article will look at Wagner in Belarus and relations with President Alexander Lukashenko)